Sunday, March 13, 2016
Discerning Indian Electrotate - A Journey Through Time
Bitterly fought Bihar State Assembly elections are over and
the jury is already out. The BJP
received drubbings at the hands of clever and wily strategic political alliance
of Nitish Kumar and Lau Prasad Yadav in the form of ‘Maha Gatabandhan’. After losing the Delhi turf to Aam Admi
Party in the February,2015 Assembly
elections, Bihar’s is a another setback to the growing stature of
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah combine. For the BJP, the Bihar electoral reverse
emboldened the dormant dissenting voices within the party and clamor for fixing
the responsibility is growing.
The hype and hoopla generated by the Bihar elections set me on
a train of thought to trace the retrospective journey of studied Indian electorate ever since I first awakened
to the election system during the turbulent emergency years in the mid- seventies.
As a school going boy, I would see trucks brim to the full carrying
rural mass, lined up one after the other on the road, amid the din of shouting
and agitating rural folk. People would talk in hushed tones on roads and in
streets. There was a sort of tense
prevailed in the society. In home my
father used to chide congress party and their oppressive regime. Wherever I go, school, friend’s house,
playground, I used to hear the word “Emergency”. Prominent politicians were incarcerated, press
was censored and policeman took law on their hands with impunity. Later after many years, I learnt what I saw then agitating truckload of people
had been carried for mass sterilization and the word ‘Emergency’ had shaken the
whole country.
The country was liberated from the clutches of emergency
with the announcement of General Elections In the year 1977. Now the opposition
was united under the leadership of Lok Nayak Jayaprakash Narayan against the ruling
congress party lead by Mrs. Indira Gandhi. Till then, congress did not face
such tough opposition and it was almost single party rule. The opposition party
leaders to name a few Morarji Desai,
Vajapayee, L K Advani, Madhu Dandavate, Madhu Limaye and many stalwarts under the banner of Janata
Party traveled across India and held rallies and addressed large public gatherings
and when the verdict was out, as a fitting reply to the congress party’s
arrogance, people gave mandate against it. For the first time non -congress
government took oath of the office under the leadership of Morarji Desai as the
fourth prime minister of India. Though
the opposition was united with a single cause of defeating Congress, its leadership
lacking homogeneity in thoughts and beliefs could not hold on to the office for
a long and the government crumbled soon and Just within two years the country
went to the polls again in 1980.
Though Mrs. Indira Gandhi was unpopular for imposing
emergency, her mass appeal was intact and by now she had also learnt a lesson
or two in humility and also consequences of what it being an authoritarian. Under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, the
congress party swept back to power and Mrs. Indira Gandhi became the prime
minister of the country again. Here I
must mention an incident that of how Indira Gandhi cared her loyalists and encouraged
sycophancy. One of the Members of
Parliament (Congress) elected from Gulbarga constituency made to resign to
accommodate Mrs. Indira Gandhi loyalist C M Stephen resulting in by elections
to the Parliament.
Stephen who hailed from Kerala fought by-election from
Gulbarga constituency as a Congress candidate and I still remember during
congress party election rallies introducing name of C M Stephen to electorate
as C M Tippanna and convincing public as he was from their own land and not an
outsider so as to counter the opposition parties accusations of congress foisting
an outside non-state candidate to the local electorate. Funny thing was that, if I remember correctly,
the congress candidate C M Stephen hardly visited the constituency once and his
localization in the form C M Tippanna worked wonders and the candidate won the
bye-election handsomely. This incident only reinforced the popular
saying in those days that even donkey would win elections if it contests under
the banner of congress and it was not only an indication of popularity of the
party and also its stranglehold on the Indian electorate in general.
In an unexpected turn of event, Ms. Gandhi was assassinated
in the year 1984 and subsequently, the constituent assembly was dissolved and
the elections were held in the year 1984 for the 8th Lok Sabha and riding
on the sympathy wave, the Congress party swept back to power with thumping
majority reducing opposition a mere symbolic presence and BJP managed to get just
a couple of seats.
Mr. Rajiv Gnadhi was elected as Parliamentary leader of the
congress party and he became the sixth Prime minister of the country. Under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi, the
congress party enjoyed complete majority and Rajiv as the prime minister of the
country ushered in a new revolution in Information and communication technology
and with that infused a new vigor in Indian economy and raised aspirations of
Indian youth.
Rajiv’s dispensation caught in the wrong foot in the Bofors
defense deal and this caused considerable embarrassment to him personally and
also to his party. The image of the
Congress party took beating and growing dissent within in the party from his
own defense minister V P Singh further affected his growing influence in the
party. Finally the dissent resulted in
VP Singh leaving the congress party and forming an alliance with opposition party
and was elected as the prime ministerial candidate for the 1989 elections held
for the 9th Lok Sabha and he successfully countered the congress and succeeded
in winning the peoples mandate and became the seventh prime minister of the
country.
VP Singh’s short period in the office beset with the controversy
of Mandal Commission and Mr. Advani’s Rath Yathra. Mr. Advani led his Rath
yatra from Somnath, Gujarat to Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh but he was arrested in
the midway at Samastipur, in Bihar and after the arrest of Mr.Advani , the BJP,
a partner in the coalition government
withdrew its support to Mr.V P Singh and
consequently his government failed to prove majority on the floor of the house.
Taking the advantage of the situation,
Rajiv Gandhi led Congress extends its support to Mr. Chandrashekar and
installed him as the Prime Minister of the country but just within a year he
was unseated citing difference of opinion and as a result of this fallout another
general elections were forced on the country for the 10th Lok Sabha.
It was a god sent opportunity for Rajeev to reestablish his
hegemony and win back confidence of the masses and he made a whirlwind tour of
the country and addressed electoral rallies and he smelled the power once again
but luck willed otherwise and in a tragic event of assassination, he laid down
his life. Riding on the sympathy wave, congress
emerged as the single largest party in the 1991 general elections and in a
dramatic turn of events congress elected its veteran leader P V Narsimha Rao as
the parliamentary leader of the congress party and he became the ninth Prime
Minister of the country, as seasoned politician he was and knew the political
maneuverings and cobbled to together a coalition government with a simple
majority ruled the country a full term of five years.
The General Elections were declared in the months of April-May
1996 and the outcome of the 11th Loka Sabha resulted in the hung
parliament again and under the leadership of Mr. Atal Behari Vajapayee, the BJP
emerged as a single largest party and Mr. Vajapayee was invited to form the
government and he did so and it lasted for just 13 days since he failed to
prove the majority required within the stipulated time on the floor of the
house. While demitting the office Mr. Vjapayee made a memorable speech and it’s
considered as one of the best speeches in the Indian parliamentary
history.
Seeing the opportunity, opposition parties joined hands to
present a united opposition front to the president of India to complete the
remainder term of the parliament and
elected Mr. Devegowda as its leader and he became the eleventh prime minister
of the country, and he could hold office only for 10 months and he was replaced
by veteran I K Gujaral and he continued
in the office of the prime minster another eleven months and due to internal
differences the government could not last longer and the parliament was
dissolved and the general election was announced.
The elections held for the 12th Loka Sabha in
1999 and resulted in the BJP again emerging as a single largest party and by now, the party had its coalition in place:
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and formed the government and Mr.Vijapayee
sworn in as the 12th Prime Minster, second time in the span of two and
half years but the NDA government could
last only for 13 months due to AIADMK one of its coalition partners pulling out
of the alliance leading to the NDA government becoming minority and when the
president of India invited the second largest party Congress to form the
government but Ms. Sonia Gandhi led congress showed its reluctance to do so and
subsequently the parliament was dissolved again and the general elections were
declared for the thirteenth Loka Sabha and it is the third time the general elections
were being held in a span of just two and half years and peoples anger was quite palpable when
they saw the events unfolding in Indian parliament.
The NDA under the leadership of Mr. Atal Behari Vajapayee
went to the polls and this time Indian electorate exercised their franchise
decisively in favor of NDA coalition showing their maturity in avoiding the
instance of another Hung Parliament.
Vajapyee government during its tenure of five years
successfully launched important programs that put the country in the fast lane
of progress. Some of his government’s achievements were Right to education act,
approval of Delhi Metro, Nuclear weapon capability, Impetus in the space
programs, National Highway expansion, Strong international relations and many
more. Mr.Vajapayee was the first non –congress prime minister who successfully
completed the five years term. In the election Year of 2004, his government
unleashed a blitzkrieg of ‘India Shining’ campaign to highlight the NDA
achievements and catch the imagination of the country but when the elections
were held for the 14th Loka sabha in the year 2004, the out-come was
shocking that despite its best effort NDA failed to get the approval of the
Indian electorate thus the five years of its regime came to an end. No one was
expected that the NDA dispensation would be voted out of power and the Indian
electorate caused a surprise for the one and all.
United Progress
Alliance (UPA) took the reins of the power under the leadership of Dr. Man
Mohan Singh and the first five years of his term was quite fruitful during
which time country achieved GDP of 7.5 percent growth and he has also signed a
land mark nuclear treaty with USA and also ushered in the enactment of Right to
Information Act what is popularly known as RTI.
At the same time UPA’s second term was replete with the corruption scams
like Telecom spectrum auction, Coal allocation etc that bandied the government as most corrupt one in the
history of independent India. UPA
cleverly announced some popular measures like right to food act etc to entice
the rural electorate once again but this time Indian electorate was wise enough
not to fall prey and decisively voted the UPA out of the office in 2014 general
elections.
The election to the 15th Loka Sabha was the
historic one where BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi emerged as a single
largest party with clear mandate to rule the country for five years. Before the 2014 general election I had an
opportunity to hear a lecture organized by Bangalore based independent Think Tank from an eminent Indian
Journalist who was also part of the NDA government’s policy making team. In his
hour long lecture, he spoke chances of BJP and told BJP would emerge as real
front runner, considering many factors like Narndra Modi’s aspirational
leadership, enthusiasm in cadre of the party and RSS and also the factor of many
un-doings of UPA government. However, the
journalist told even if BJP forms the government with the help of coalition
partners would not last long as Mr. Modi would never be a consensus leader and
in turn this would act as a detractor and would help Congress in terms of
resurrecting its chances in case of mid-term elections held but when the actual
2014 election results were announced I think he would not have Imagined in his
wildest dream that results would be of so emphatic in favor of Modi’s
candidature.
In the 2014 General Elections, many political pundits got
wrong their predictions that of no clear majority to any political outfit.
However, the Indian electorate shown such maturity that after a gap of nearly
two decades the single party has been given majority and especially the results
of UTTAR PRADESH which is considered as the most backward state and known for
the polarized voting pattern based on cast lines, supporting a single party in
wholesale is an indication of wisdom of Indian voter coming of an age. When I see these results in juxtaposition to
the Karantaka State Assembly elections held in 2008, where earlier a regional
outfit JD(S) failed to keep its promise of handing over the Chief Minister
position to BJP’s candidate as previously agreed for 20 months term for each
party. The state voter promptly cast his ballot in favor aggrieved BJP and gave
a simple majority to rule the state but it is now well known that how BJP
behaved in its five years term with constant internal squabbling and in a span
of five years, three chief ministers replaced and instead of providing a stable
government, the party and its leaders always spent time in infighting to serve the
individual interests but in the 2013 assembly elections, the state electorate
promptly voted out the BJP government sending a stern message to the state political
leaders that of its alert and vigilant ways of keeping an eye on the affairs of
the state.
In hindsight, when one sees the trends of voting
pattern of Indian electorate be it 2014 general elections or subsequent assembly
elections held for the states of Delhi and Bihar, it’s clear that no political
party can take Indian voter for granted.
When it was seen Mr. Modi as all pervasive force, can wield a magic wand
on electorate with his rhetoric and oratory skills, proved wrong when the Delhi
Assembly results were declared. The Bihar Assembly election was a warning to
Mr. Narendra Modi’s government that when in power it is important to be prudent,
and not allow fringe elements to take over the centrer stage nor do allow narrow
parochial party agendas overtake the country’s interests and any deviation from
the straight path is an invitation to disaster.
When I see today’s school going kids and their knowledge and
range of interests including in the affairs of the country and I am sure unlike in
the yore, no political leader can now afford take devious path or do political
machinations to win over the confidence of the voter except conducting himself in
just, and transparent manner and keeping the interest of the country uppermost
in his mind.. Otherwise, politicos!! Beware that Indian voter is discerning.
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