Musings on Men and Matters: 03/13/16

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Discerning Indian Electrotate - A Journey Through Time

Bitterly fought Bihar State Assembly elections are over and the jury is already out. The BJP received drubbings at the hands of clever and wily strategic political alliance of Nitish Kumar and Lau Prasad Yadav in the form of ‘Maha Gatabandhan’. After losing the Delhi turf to Aam Admi Party in the February,2015 Assembly elections, Bihar’s is a another setback to the growing stature of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah combine. For the BJP, the Bihar electoral reverse emboldened the dormant dissenting voices within the party and clamor for fixing the responsibility is growing.

The hype and hoopla generated by the Bihar elections set me on a train of thought to trace the retrospective journey of studied Indian electorate ever since I first awakened to the election system during the turbulent emergency years in the mid- seventies.

As a school going boy, I would see trucks brim to the full carrying rural mass, lined up one after the other on the road, amid the din of shouting and agitating rural folk. People would talk in hushed tones on roads and in streets. There was a sort of tense prevailed in the society. In home my father used to chide congress party and their oppressive regime. Wherever I go, school, friend’s house, playground, I used to hear the word “Emergency”. Prominent politicians were incarcerated, press was censored and policeman took law on their hands with impunity. Later after many years, I learnt what I saw then agitating truckload of people had been carried for mass sterilization and the word ‘Emergency’ had shaken the whole country.

The country was liberated from the clutches of emergency with the announcement of General Elections In the year 1977. Now the opposition was united under the leadership of Lok Nayak Jayaprakash Narayan against the ruling congress party lead by Mrs. Indira Gandhi. Till then, congress did not face such tough opposition and it was almost single party rule. The opposition party leaders to name a few Morarji Desai, Vajapayee, L K Advani, Madhu Dandavate, Madhu Limaye and many stalwarts under the banner of Janata Party traveled across India and held rallies and addressed large public gatherings and when the verdict was out, as a fitting reply to the congress party’s arrogance, people gave mandate against it. For the first time non -congress government took oath of the office under the leadership of Morarji Desai as the fourth prime minister of India. Though the opposition was united with a single cause of defeating Congress, its leadership lacking homogeneity in thoughts and beliefs could not hold on to the office for a long and the government crumbled soon and Just within two years the country went to the polls again in 1980.

Though Mrs. Indira Gandhi was unpopular for imposing emergency, her mass appeal was intact and by now she had also learnt a lesson or two in humility and also consequences of what it being an authoritarian. Under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, the congress party swept back to power and Mrs. Indira Gandhi became the prime minister of the country again. Here I must mention an incident that of how Indira Gandhi cared her loyalists and encouraged sycophancy. One of the Members of Parliament (Congress) elected from Gulbarga constituency made to resign to accommodate Mrs. Indira Gandhi loyalist C M Stephen resulting in by elections to the Parliament.

Stephen who hailed from Kerala fought by-election from Gulbarga constituency as a Congress candidate and I still remember during congress party election rallies introducing name of C M Stephen to electorate as C M Tippanna and convincing public as he was from their own land and not an outsider so as to counter the opposition parties accusations of congress foisting an outside non-state candidate to the local electorate. Funny thing was that, if I remember correctly, the congress candidate C M Stephen hardly visited the constituency once and his localization in the form C M Tippanna worked wonders and the candidate won the bye-election handsomely. This incident only reinforced the popular saying in those days that even donkey would win elections if it contests under the banner of congress and it was not only an indication of popularity of the party and also its stranglehold on the Indian electorate in general.

In an unexpected turn of event, Ms. Gandhi was assassinated in the year 1984 and subsequently, the constituent assembly was dissolved and the elections were held in the year 1984 for the 8^th Lok Sabha and riding on the sympathy wave, the Congress party swept back to power with thumping majority reducing opposition a mere symbolic presence and BJP managed to get just a couple of seats.

Mr. Rajiv Gnadhi was elected as Parliamentary leader of the congress party and he became the sixth Prime minister of the country. Under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi, the congress party enjoyed complete majority and Rajiv as the prime minister of the country ushered in a new revolution in Information and communication technology and with that infused a new vigor in Indian economy and raised aspirations of Indian youth.

Rajiv’s dispensation caught in the wrong foot in the Bofors defense deal and this caused considerable embarrassment to him personally and also to his party. The image of the Congress party took beating and growing dissent within in the party from his own defense minister V P Singh further affected his growing influence in the party. Finally the dissent resulted in VP Singh leaving the congress party and forming an alliance with opposition party and was elected as the prime ministerial candidate for the 1989 elections held for the 9th Lok Sabha and he successfully countered the congress and succeeded in winning the peoples mandate and became the seventh prime minister of the country.

VP Singh’s short period in the office beset with the controversy of Mandal Commission and Mr. Advani’s Rath Yathra. Mr. Advani led his Rath yatra from Somnath, Gujarat to Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh but he was arrested in the midway at Samastipur, in Bihar and after the arrest of Mr.Advani , the BJP, a partner in the coalition government withdrew its support to Mr.V P Singh and consequently his government failed to prove majority on the floor of the house. Taking the advantage of the situation, Rajiv Gandhi led Congress extends its support to Mr. Chandrashekar and installed him as the Prime Minister of the country but just within a year he was unseated citing difference of opinion and as a result of this fallout another general elections were forced on the country for the 10^th Lok Sabha.

It was a god sent opportunity for Rajeev to reestablish his hegemony and win back confidence of the masses and he made a whirlwind tour of the country and addressed electoral rallies and he smelled the power once again but luck willed otherwise and in a tragic event of assassination, he laid down his life. Riding on the sympathy wave, congress emerged as the single largest party in the 1991 general elections and in a dramatic turn of events congress elected its veteran leader P V Narsimha Rao as the parliamentary leader of the congress party and he became the ninth Prime Minister of the country, as seasoned politician he was and knew the political maneuverings and cobbled to together a coalition government with a simple majority ruled the country a full term of five years.

The General Elections were declared in the months of April-May 1996 and the outcome of the 11^th Loka Sabha resulted in the hung parliament again and under the leadership of Mr. Atal Behari Vajapayee, the BJP emerged as a single largest party and Mr. Vajapayee was invited to form the government and he did so and it lasted for just 13 days since he failed to prove the majority required within the stipulated time on the floor of the house. While demitting the office Mr. Vjapayee made a memorable speech and it’s considered as one of the best speeches in the Indian parliamentary history.

Seeing the opportunity, opposition parties joined hands to present a united opposition front to the president of India to complete the remainder term of the parliament and elected Mr. Devegowda as its leader and he became the eleventh prime minister of the country, and he could hold office only for 10 months and he was replaced by veteran I K Gujaral and he continued in the office of the prime minster another eleven months and due to internal differences the government could not last longer and the parliament was dissolved and the general election was announced.

The elections held for the 12^th Loka Sabha in 1999 and resulted in the BJP again emerging as a single largest party and by now, the party had its coalition in place: National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and formed the government and Mr.Vijapayee sworn in as the 12^th Prime Minster, second time in the span of two and half years but the NDA government could last only for 13 months due to AIADMK one of its coalition partners pulling out of the alliance leading to the NDA government becoming minority and when the president of India invited the second largest party Congress to form the government but Ms. Sonia Gandhi led congress showed its reluctance to do so and subsequently the parliament was dissolved again and the general elections were declared for the thirteenth Loka Sabha and it is the third time the general elections were being held in a span of just two and half years and peoples anger was quite palpable when they saw the events unfolding in Indian parliament.

The NDA under the leadership of Mr. Atal Behari Vajapayee went to the polls and this time Indian electorate exercised their franchise decisively in favor of NDA coalition showing their maturity in avoiding the instance of another Hung Parliament.

Vajapyee government during its tenure of five years successfully launched important programs that put the country in the fast lane of progress. Some of his government’s achievements were Right to education act, approval of Delhi Metro, Nuclear weapon capability, Impetus in the space programs, National Highway expansion, Strong international relations and many more. Mr.Vajapayee was the first non –congress prime minister who successfully completed the five years term. In the election Year of 2004, his government unleashed a blitzkrieg of ‘India Shining’ campaign to highlight the NDA achievements and catch the imagination of the country but when the elections were held for the 14^th Loka sabha in the year 2004, the out-come was shocking that despite its best effort NDA failed to get the approval of the Indian electorate thus the five years of its regime came to an end. No one was expected that the NDA dispensation would be voted out of power and the Indian electorate caused a surprise for the one and all.

United Progress Alliance (UPA) took the reins of the power under the leadership of Dr. Man Mohan Singh and the first five years of his term was quite fruitful during which time country achieved GDP of 7.5 percent growth and he has also signed a land mark nuclear treaty with USA and also ushered in the enactment of Right to Information Act what is popularly known as RTI. At the same time UPA’s second term was replete with the corruption scams like Telecom spectrum auction, Coal allocation etc that bandied the government as most corrupt one in the history of independent India. UPA cleverly announced some popular measures like right to food act etc to entice the rural electorate once again but this time Indian electorate was wise enough not to fall prey and decisively voted the UPA out of the office in 2014 general elections.

The election to the 15^th Loka Sabha was the historic one where BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi emerged as a single largest party with clear mandate to rule the country for five years. Before the 2014 general election I had an opportunity to hear a lecture organized by Bangalore based independent Think Tank from an eminent Indian Journalist who was also part of the NDA government’s policy making team. In his hour long lecture, he spoke chances of BJP and told BJP would emerge as real front runner, considering many factors like Narndra Modi’s aspirational leadership, enthusiasm in cadre of the party and RSS and also the factor of many un-doings of UPA government. However, the journalist told even if BJP forms the government with the help of coalition partners would not last long as Mr. Modi would never be a consensus leader and in turn this would act as a detractor and would help Congress in terms of resurrecting its chances in case of mid-term elections held but when the actual 2014 election results were announced I think he would not have Imagined in his wildest dream that results would be of so emphatic in favor of Modi’s candidature.

In the 2014 General Elections, many political pundits got wrong their predictions that of no clear majority to any political outfit. However, the Indian electorate shown such maturity that after a gap of nearly two decades the single party has been given majority and especially the results of UTTAR PRADESH which is considered as the most backward state and known for the polarized voting pattern based on cast lines, supporting a single party in wholesale is an indication of wisdom of Indian voter coming of an age. When I see these results in juxtaposition to the Karantaka State Assembly elections held in 2008, where earlier a regional outfit JD(S) failed to keep its promise of handing over the Chief Minister position to BJP’s candidate as previously agreed for 20 months term for each party. The state voter promptly cast his ballot in favor aggrieved BJP and gave a simple majority to rule the state but it is now well known that how BJP behaved in its five years term with constant internal squabbling and in a span of five years, three chief ministers replaced and instead of providing a stable government, the party and its leaders always spent time in infighting to serve the individual interests but in the 2013 assembly elections, the state electorate promptly voted out the BJP government sending a stern message to the state political leaders that of its alert and vigilant ways of keeping an eye on the affairs of the state.

In hindsight, when one sees the trends of voting pattern of Indian electorate be it 2014 general elections or subsequent assembly elections held for the states of Delhi and Bihar, it’s clear that no political party can take Indian voter for granted. When it was seen Mr. Modi as all pervasive force, can wield a magic wand on electorate with his rhetoric and oratory skills, proved wrong when the Delhi Assembly results were declared. The Bihar Assembly election was a warning to Mr. Narendra Modi’s government that when in power it is important to be prudent, and not allow fringe elements to take over the centrer stage nor do allow narrow parochial party agendas overtake the country’s interests and any deviation from the straight path is an invitation to disaster.

When I see today’s school going kids and their knowledge and range of interests including in the affairs of the country and I am sure unlike in the yore, no political leader can now afford take devious path or do political machinations to win over the confidence of the voter except conducting himself in just, and transparent manner and keeping the interest of the country uppermost in his mind.. Otherwise, politicos!! Beware that Indian voter is discerning.